Thursday, 5/5/16 update

I've been staring at the ES chart from time to time over the last two weeks, trying to make sense of the pattern in EW terms.  Made only one trade in that period and got my a-- handed to me.  But this afternoon it came into focus:

Of course there are other possibilities here, chief of which is that we've seen a whole bunch of nested waves 1 & 2.   If that's the case, the ES should fall off the edge of a cliff very soon.  If the above possibility is in play, we should bottom very soon and rally sharply.  So we're at an inflection point.