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Sunday, May 8, 2016

Sunday, 5/8/16 update

Thursday evening I posted an ES count that proposed an ending diagonal "c" wave in progress.  That idea was promptly blown up on Friday morning.  So it goes.

But it does look like an interim low was established Friday morning.  As usual there are some alternate counts here, but my preferred short term count has a multiple zig-zag formation bottoming at that low:

This count would dictate a run up to the late Apr high at the very least.

The most likely alternate here is that we've seen a series of nested waves 1 & 2 since the Apr highs:

If this count is the correct one then we should see an almost immediate acceleration into a 3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd wave sell off, possibly at tonight's open.

I prefer the 1st alternate above because of the behavior of my Buy/Sell Oscillator.  This is an index which attempts to measure buying and selling pressure in the market:

As a timing tool it tends to lag the market, so more often than not it serves as a confirmation of a trend.  But at times it tends to vacillate wildly, and when that occurs it often signals a change in the prevailing trend.  As can be seen, that's exactly what it's been doing in the last week, so this may be telling us that the ES is transitioning from a downtrend to an uptrend.  I publish this thought with some trepidation given how quickly my post on Thursday was destroyed.  But there it is.

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