Thursday, 1/29/15 update

The last month has been about as difficult as it gets using Elliott Wave on the ES/SPX.  Discerning what exactly is unfolding has been a real challenge.  Although the bias seems to be bearish it's not clear that the intermediate term direction is down - i.e. that a sustained bear market is underway.  With that thought in mind a possible alternate is that the market has formed a triangle in the action going back to the early December highs, with the last move in that formation complete today or very soon.  This possibility is laid out in the following charts:

If the rally that commenced today fails and the ES drops below the Intermediate Wave C low of 1970.25 then this possibility will be invalidated.