Saturday, November 29, 2014
Saturday, November 22, 2014
Saturday, November 15, 2014
Saturday, 11/15/14 update
This thing looks ripe for a correction:
But the run up from the mid-October lows could well be just Intermediate W1 of Major W5 rather than the entirety of Major W5, so a short duration correction may be all that occurs. Seasonally their is a bullish bias in the coming months, especially in December.
But the run up from the mid-October lows could well be just Intermediate W1 of Major W5 rather than the entirety of Major W5, so a short duration correction may be all that occurs. Seasonally their is a bullish bias in the coming months, especially in December.
Saturday, November 8, 2014
Saturday, 11/8/14 update
The ES/SPX has moved up impressively since the mid-October low. Any number of technical measurements are showing an "overbought" situation, including Al's Daily indicator as can be seen below. This rendering has the formula based off a 20 day time frame, as can be seen it's been a respectable identifier of market tops over the last couple of years (note that the price chart is the NYSE).
The EW pattern of the current rally was fairly straightforward through Oct 31st, but the last week of action has gotten a little muddy. Thus there are a number of ways to label the short term count, below are the two most likely alternatives:
There are a couple of things to note in these charts. First, there are enough waves to count a close to complete or actually completed structure off the mid-October low. Second, it's apparent that the rally has lost some steam over the last week - the rate of ascent is visibly weaker. Of course, the market could just be basing for further sharp rally, but the odds are that a correction of some sort is more likely in the very near future.
From a longer term perspective the market is at a critical inflection point.
Major W1 (see legend on right) of the bull market that started in October, 2011 was a fast and furious run up that lasted 18 days and climbed 221 points. Major W5 since the recent mid-October lows has climbed 220.50 points in 17 trading days through Friday. Major W5 = Major W1 at ES 2034.25. Friday's high of 2033.50 is almost a direct hit of that target. So if Major W5 is going to duplicate Major W1 then the top to Primary W III is very close if not already achieved. However, Major W5 could very well extend, and thus a top here could well be only the high for Intermediate W1 of Major W5. That would mean a lot more bull market yet to occur in the coming months.
The EW pattern of the current rally was fairly straightforward through Oct 31st, but the last week of action has gotten a little muddy. Thus there are a number of ways to label the short term count, below are the two most likely alternatives:
OR
There are a couple of things to note in these charts. First, there are enough waves to count a close to complete or actually completed structure off the mid-October low. Second, it's apparent that the rally has lost some steam over the last week - the rate of ascent is visibly weaker. Of course, the market could just be basing for further sharp rally, but the odds are that a correction of some sort is more likely in the very near future.
From a longer term perspective the market is at a critical inflection point.
Major W1 (see legend on right) of the bull market that started in October, 2011 was a fast and furious run up that lasted 18 days and climbed 221 points. Major W5 since the recent mid-October lows has climbed 220.50 points in 17 trading days through Friday. Major W5 = Major W1 at ES 2034.25. Friday's high of 2033.50 is almost a direct hit of that target. So if Major W5 is going to duplicate Major W1 then the top to Primary W III is very close if not already achieved. However, Major W5 could very well extend, and thus a top here could well be only the high for Intermediate W1 of Major W5. That would mean a lot more bull market yet to occur in the coming months.
Saturday, November 1, 2014
Saturday, 11/1/14 update
If this count is correct then the ES is in the 5th wave (Major W5) of the bull market that started Oct 2011. Major W1 was a fast and furious run up that lasted 18 days and climbed 221 points. Major W5 has climbed 204 points in 12 trading days through Friday. Major W5 = Major W1 at ES 2034.25, only 17.50 points up from Friday's high. So if Major W5 is going to duplicate Major W1 then the top to Primary W III is very close.
Internal count for Major W5 has the ES midway through an extended Minor W5 of Intermediate W3 off the Oct 15 Major W4 low. The top for Minor W5 will be followed by Inter W4 & W5 into a very significant long term peak.
Classic market theory holds that at market tops less and less individual issues participate. Following is the amount of the September to October sell off that has been retraced by a number of indexes since the mid October lows:
DJIA 103.0%
SPX 99.4%
NYSE 78.5%
RUT 77.3% (measured from the July high)
As can be seen, the broader based the index the less the retrace, which would lend credence to the idea that a top is in the process of being formed.
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