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Saturday, November 1, 2014

Saturday, 11/1/14 update



If this count is correct then the ES is in the 5th wave (Major W5) of the bull market that started  Oct 2011.  Major W1 was a fast and furious run up that lasted 18 days and climbed 221 points. Major W5 has climbed 204 points in 12 trading days through Friday.  Major W5 = Major W1 at ES 2034.25, only 17.50 points up from Friday's high.  So if Major W5 is going to duplicate Major W1 then the top to Primary W III is very close.


Internal count for Major W5 has the ES midway through an extended Minor W5 of Intermediate W3 off the Oct 15 Major W4 low.  The top for Minor W5 will be followed by Inter W4 & W5 into a very significant long term peak.

Classic market theory holds that at market tops less and less individual issues participate.  Following is the amount of the September to October sell off that has been retraced by a number of indexes since the mid October lows:

DJIA    103.0%
SPX       99.4%
NYSE    78.5%
RUT       77.3% (measured from the July high)

As can be seen, the broader based the index the less the retrace, which would lend credence to the idea that a top is in the process of being formed.

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