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Saturday, October 18, 2014

Saturday, 10/18/14 upate

Very difficult pattern to analyze in EW terms since the Sep 19 ATH.  Although the market was quite "oversold" by just about any measure by mid-week the EW count looks like it needs at least one more thrust down to new lows for the move.  A possible target area is between 1801.25 where Intermediate W3 = 3 x Intermediate W1 and 1791.00 where Minor W3 = 3 x Minor W1.  If this downdraft develops it will likely generate momentum divergences on a variety of technical indicators and could be an opportunity for a long play.  But extreme caution should be exercised in that eventuality.

Long term view:

Notice how that 1795 - 1805 area has acted as a pivot in the last year.

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