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Saturday, June 7, 2014

Saturday, 6/7/14 update

Pretty persistent rally over the last few weeks with decent gains.  However, if you back up and look at the ES/SPX pattern since the 1st of the year it's pretty much sideways until this recent rally.  The ES/SPX closed 2013 around the 1850 level, so Friday's ES close of 1949.75 is only a 100 point gain in 5 months - not all that much as compared to the last few years.  All of which is to say that the idea of a top being built is still a viable possibility.

Alternate #1

Alternate #2
Alternate #2 proposes an ending diagonal for Major W5 starting from the 1732.00 low of Feb 5.  Intermediate W1 & W2 are done with Inter W3 in progress from the low of 1803.25 on Apr 13.  In an ED wave 3 needs to be shorter than wave 1, Inter W1 was 160.50 points, so this count is invalidated if the rally off the Apr 13 low exceeds 1963.75 (1803.25 + 160.50 = 1963.75).

Long term charts and analysis can be found here.

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