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Saturday, June 21, 2014

Saturday, 6/20/14 update

Updated counts on the two alternates presented last weekend:

Alternate #1

Alternate #2

Couple of things to note:

In Alternate #1 an ending diagonal is envisioned off the early February lows.  In an ED the 3rd wave needs to be shorter than the 1st (and the 5th shorter than the 3rd - thus the diagonal designation).  At ES 1963.75 Intermediate W3 would be longer than Inter W1, so a continuation of the current rally through 1963.75 without a sell off overlapping the Inter W1 high at 1892.50 would invalidate the ED idea.

Secondly, the underlying market technicals of last weeks rally were notably weaker than those of the weeks immediately preceding, thus supporting the idea that last weeks upward pop was either a 5th wave as in Alt #1 or a B wave as in Alt #2.

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