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Sunday, March 17, 2013

Sunday, 3/17/13 update

Crowded weekend so not much time for a post.

Current short term count for the ES:

There's no question that equities are overbought on the short term.  However, markets can go "overbought" or "oversold" in a strong trend and just stay there.  But gravity has to have an effect at some point, if the above count is correct then that point is very, very close.  It may already be here, except that Friday's selling was a three wave move with a rebound that overlapped the 1st leg of that move, so it does seem likely that there's one more pop left in the gun. 

Al's Daily Indicator has a record of being better at nailing bottoms than tops.  The chart of that indicator below highlights it's record with respect to tops in the last couple of years.  Actually, it hasn't been half bad over that period.  However, it did recently put in a spike top last Monday and has been falling away sharply since then in the face of a continuation of the recent rally through the week.  Probably the best way to view this is as a confirmation of a 5th wave in progress as per the Elliott count above.

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