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Saturday, March 2, 2013

Saturday, 3/2/13 update

The preferred count on this site has the ES/SPX in the 5th wave of an ending diagonal, which by definition should be a three segment structure.  Minor Waves "a" and "b" of that structure are complete and Minor Wave "c" is in progress.  Further, Minute waves 1 thru 3 of Minor "c" appear complete at the ES 1530 high on Feb 20.

The three wave move since the Feb 20 top into the low of 1481.75 on Feb 25 is either Minute W4 or the first segment of Minute W4.  It's clearly a zig-zag, and since Minute W2 was a flat the sequence satisfies the EW rule of alternation.  If Minute W4 is complete at the Feb 25 low then Minute W5 is now in progress.  5th waves generally travel a distance that is related to 1st waves in terms of a fibonnaci ratio.  On this basis, possible targets for Minute W5 are at 1531.00 where Minute W5 = .50 x Minute W1, then at 1542.75 where Minute W5 = .618 x Minute W1 and finally at  1580.25 where Minute W5 = Minute W1.

However, it's possible that Minute W4 is not yet complete.  Minute W2 lasted 11 days. If Minute W4 was complete on Feb 25 it's duration was only 3 days, so there is room for Minute W4 to drag out a bit longer and not be out of proportion.  It's entirely possible that Minute W4 could be in the process of forming a double or triple zig-zag with the low of Feb 25 being only the first zig-zag in the sequence.  Also, it could form a triangle as conceived in the chart below.

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