Friday, 9/30/11 update

1:00 PM Am out of the office for the rest of today. Awfully close to a buy signal here with buy line holding above sell line and prices close to breaking above down trend line, so am going to establish a trailing stop in the short ES position from Wednesday at +6.00.

Thursday, 9/29/11 update

Sloppy, choppy - herky, jerky. Hard to trade this. Buy line crossed above sell line at the end of the day, but prices haven't broke above the trend line so still holding short. Difficult call here, but quite possibly will have to reverse from short to long soon.

Wednesday, 9/28/11 update

SPX sell signal - closed Friday's long ES went short

Monday, 9/26/11 update

Little dicey today, prices broke below the trend line early in the day but buy line didn't cross below the sell line. Later on that crossover did occur but by then prices were back above the trend line and rallying. After that the Buy/Sell line swapped back and forth but prices remained firmly above the trend line. So no sell signal was ever generated even though the market danced at the edge of the cliff. Nice little pop at the end of the day turned the long ES from Friday from marginal to profitable.
For today, either the SPX/Vindicator trading method was a) doing it's job because of superior design or b) lucky. I'd like to think it was option a, but more likely option b played a role.

Friday, 9/23/11 update

Buy signal on SPX 10 minute, covered Tuesday's short ES, going long.

Tuesday, 9/20/11 2nd update

This looks a lot better than the situation this morning. Shorted ES @ 1201.75.

Tuesday, 9/20/11 update

I like mechanical trading approaches because they take the emotions out of the equation, but there are times when good old judgement and experience are dictated.
The 10 minute SPX/Vindicator system has been a solid winner the last month, but yesterday's action was not crystal clear, the Vindicator Buy/Sell is doing a lot of flip-flops, so the long ES from late yesterday PM was liquidated this morning for a small loss (long ES @ 1201, out @ 1200) and went to cash. My sense is that we are more likely to sell off here than rally, but it's not all that certain.

Wednesday, 9/14/11 update

Well, it looked like we might repeat last week's pattern on the SPX - Vindicator this morning (see yesterday's post).  The Vindicator buy line was diverging sharply against an early rally followed by prices rolling over later in the morning.  But selling pressure never crossed above buying pressure as measured by the Vindicator and prices eventually reversed into a nice rally for the day.  By the end of the day the buy line divergence was erased. In the final analysis the Vindicator did a nice job of keeping me long in the face of the selling in the morning.  Me likey.

Tuesday, 9/13/11 update (PM)

Last week there was a pattern in the SPX +Vindicator Buy/Sell that had a buy signal at the close on Tuesday Sep 6 followed by a steady up on Wednesday Sep 7 which was punctuated by a steep drop off in the buy line at the end of the day Wednesday.  Thursday opened up with a continuation of the rally in the morning, but the Vindicator buy line was diverging sharply.  Prices then rolled over into a decent sell off the balance of Thursday and through Friday.

 

We appear to be building a repeat of that pattern so far this week.  There was a buy signal at the end of day yesterday followed by a steady up today with a steep drop off in the buy line at the end of day.
Deja Vu all over again?

Tuesday, 9/13/11 update

Not exactly blowing the doors off, but buying pressure (green line) continues to build and selling pressure (red line) continues to fade.

Monday, 9/12/11

Buy signal on ES/SPX

Thursday, 9/8/11 update

Sell signal on ES/SPX