Monday, 7/25/11 update

Preliminary down signals on the SPX and ES this morning when prices dropped below the uptrend line that defined the rally up from last Monday's lows.  This was accompanied by a drop below 80.0 on the Dynamic Oscillator in both indexes.  The Vindicator followed along at 2 PM (CST) when the Sell line crossed above the Buy line.  The long ES held since last Tuesday was sold at that point for a net gain of 21.50 points.

SPX

ES

This is a market juncture with a high level of difficulty and thus risk.  There are at least a half dozen alternate possible Elliott counts, the two I present in the chart section of the blog are the more likely possibilities IMO, but even so their probabilities aren't the highest.  Adding to the risk is the news driven nature of the current situation.  The best Elliott analysis and technical analysis won't necessarily anticipate a sharp major jump in one direction or another that could occur as a result of a news item about the debt negotiations in Washington.
 
For current Elliott wave counts click the "HERE" button under the "Current Charts" banner at the top of this page.