Wednesday 7/21/10 wrap up

Well we have another Door #1 or Door #2 situation.  Door #1 is the preferred count, which says that the lows of July 6 marked the end of an intermediate term correction.  Since then the highs late last week were wave 1 and the lows yesterday ended wave 2 of a significant rally.  Today's selling has served to make that idea a little shaky, but there's still some distance to travel before it's off the boards completely.

DOOR #1

Door #2 says that the bear market that started in April is almost done but still needs one more down leg, which leg is currently unfolding.

DOOR #2

 
So typical Elliott Wave: the market will go up it if doesn't go down first.  You betcha.

Went long ES mid-morning @ 1075.50 based on the buy signal in the trendline/oscillator system that was discussed yesterday.  Had been waiting for a decent pullback to do the trade, this afternoon it looks like I didn't wait long enough.  Stops in this approach are set at either 1 ATR or the low preceding the entry, whichever is farther from entry.  Currently the 14 day ATR is @ 23.25 and the low preceding entry is 1050.75, so with entry @ 1075.50 the farthest point would be the preceding low, thus a stop & reverse was and is set @ 1050.75.

The 30 minute V Stoch  is forming a double bottom, hopefully the bullish implications of that will become reality.  Incidentally, the decision to execute the long ES was made this morning based on that first bottom formed in the V Stoch.