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Friday, April 16, 2010

Friday 4/16/10 wrap up


Vindicator buy/sell crossed into sell mode today on the strong downswing.   If you'll note, the sell line bottomed out yesterday AM close to the highs, which is a repeat of the pattern seen before and was an excellent spot to establish shorts.  The V Stoch bottomed out today right at LOD and has trended up since, but prices have only bounced a little - looks like the proverbial "dead cat bounce".  If this truly marks the onset of a significant correction we should see the buy line drop convincingly below the Trend Support line @ 1,000 on the buy/sell chart and should see the sell line maintain above that 1,000 level.  I will be watching the V Stoch near term to establish a short position.


From an Elliott perspective 5 waves up from the Feb 5 low can be counted.  That plus the strong swoop down today leading to a break of the lower channel line from that Feb 5 low makes a pretty convincing case that we are starting a significant correction.  Oneitem of note today was that on the hourly chart 5 waves down can be clearly counted from yesterdays high into today's low on the SPX, but only three are evident on the ES.  That situation may resolve itself in Globex trading Sunday night.  Volume today was almost double what it has been in recent weeks, of course part of that increase was OPX but not all of it IMHO.  Also another reason to think we've seen the top on the run from Feb 5 at the very least.



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