On second thought.......

On Friday the strong sell off accompanied by the break in the lower channel trendline from Feb 5 was strong evidence that the rally from Feb 5 was done and a selling trend was starting.  However, one thing to be noted is an apparent 5 waves down on the SPX was accompanied by only a 3 wave pattern on the ES.  Also, two highly regarded analysts, Daneric and Tony Caldaro (links in the right hand sidebar) both are of the opinion that at least one final push up is necessary.  If that's the case, what we will most likely see is a broadening top formation as per the "alt" wave counts in the chart below.  Under this scenario we are actually in a 4th wave with one more A-B-C push up to go, probably topping in the SPX 1220-1230 area.  If anything, we're due for some sort of bounce here to alleviate the oversold conditions generated Friday.