Happy New Year!! update 1/1/18

The pattern in the ES over the holiday weeks can be counted in two different ways.  1st possibility is that of a 4th wave triangle leading into a quick thrust of a 5th wave on Friday followed by the 1st leg of a correction:

This would portend more corrective activity over the coming days.

The 2nd possibility is that of a flat style correction with Friday's selling being the "c" - and thus last - wave of that pattern:

This would mean a quick conclusion to the selling (if it's not already done) and another ramp up almost immediately.  This alternate is the higher probability IMO.

From a longer term perspective the preferred count is showing a major top in the near future:

This count has the ES in Intermediate W5 (purple) of Major W5 (blue) of Primary W III, with Primary W III being a bull market that commenced in 2010 and Major W5 being the bull market of the last 2 years - if true, a significant juncture.

However, the parabolic rise of recent months is more typical of a 3rd wave rather than a 5th wave as labeled above.  So the thought is that the pattern from early 2016 thru mid 2017 is a series of nested 1st & 2nd waves with the run up from August thru now being the 3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd wave - i.e. the point of maximum acceleration:

This count has to be given serious consideration - if for no other reason than that there have been no serious signs of topping action as of yet.

 NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts   

Merry Christmas!! update 12/25/17

Best guess count:

And the alternate:

NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts   

Saturday, 12/16/17 update

And the beat goes on.
When looking at the below charts understand that we are still in a bull market which shows no notable signs of slowing down as of yet.  Although the current count has the ES approaching a significant top it's not there yet, and any of these bull waves could extend to much higher levels than indicated.  So the levels indicated in the charts are tentative, or better yet, tenuous.

There is the possibility of resistance at ES 2697.50 for the rally that started Thursday evening.

Short term chart:

Intermediate term:

Long term:

NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts   

Sunday, 12/3/17 update

Turns out that what was read as an ending diagonal 5th wave two weeks ago was in fact a leading diagonal 1st wave of that 5th wave.  And that 5th wave is now extending.

There is a potential resistance level in the ES 2665.00 - 2667.50 area, but the ES is right up against it with a lot of fuel in the tank so that level will probably be topped.  Next potential resistance is at ES 2733.00.  There are a bunch of 4th-5th wave unwinds necessary to resolve the count.  So there appears to be a distance yet to travel before a top can be considered.  Blow off top anyone?

Saturday, 11/18/17 update

Recent market activity has been a little difficult to read from an EW standpoint.  The short term chart on last weekend's update had the low of Thurs, 11/9 labeled as the "c" wave in an irregular flat.  That was blown up this week when further selling continued that move down and formed a 3 wave move from the top on 11/8 - so we have an a-b-c down rather than a 5 wave impulse as required in a "c" wave.  This forced a revision of the short term count.  The current view is that Minute W3 ended with an ending diagonal that topped at the ATH of 11/8 and the subsequent 3 wave move into last Wednesday's low is the "a" wave of either a flat, triangle or multiple zig-zag Minute W4.

Short term chart:

From a wider perspective it's still the case that the current count (IF correct) requires a couple of additional W4 - W5 sequences before a significant top is in place.

Intermediate term chart:

NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts   

Saturday, 11/11/17 update

Just a tad wobbly last week, but there needs to be a lot more bear action of that sort before considering a declaration of demise for the bull.  Current EW count has 4th & 5th wave unwinds still in progress, so a top is not yet in place IF the count is correct.

Short term chart:

Intermediate term chart:

NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts   

Saturday, 11/4/17 update

4th & 5th wave unwinds have been in progress, market is moving towards a top but not there yet.  The bull is still stampeding, but it does show signs of getting tired.

Short term chart:

Intermediate term chart:

In the last couple of weeks the ES/SPX has rallied while the broader market has been essentially flat.  That's a sign of an approaching top - fewer and fewer stocks are seen as having upside potential.  The divergence is obvious in the below comparison of the SPX to the NYA.  The same divergence is apparent in the RUT.

NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts