1) The seasonal tendency in recent years has been for bear market conditions over the summer ("sell in May and go away");
2) Equity indexes tend to build rounded tops, and that's what the last couple of months look like.
The two possibilities of recent note are still on the table. The 1st alternate in the chart below has a Minor W3 top as of March 1st with the a flat type W4 correction in progress since then, and in that flat waves "a" and "b" are done and wave "c" is just starting - this would indicate a sustained bear market in the coming weeks.
The 2nd alternate has Minor W3 still in progress but very close to topping. This would allow for one more stab up past ES 2400, possibly topping around ES 2412, before rolling over into a sustained bear trend.
Either way it appears that a summer bear market is in the offing.
NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts
