Saturday, 10/8/16 update

In early September the ES/SPX sold off hard and bottomed on Sep 12.  The ensuing rally was impulsive and strong and looked to be the start of a bullish run.   But except for another short bullish burst a week and a half later the pattern has been anything but impulsive - in either direction.  Just a slow sideways grind that is enough to make one scream.  So it's hard to see this situation resolving itself to the upside.   The problem from an EW standpoint is that the pattern is ambiguous enough to suggest a number of possible counts.  One of those is below, IMO it is the most likely solution but not by much: