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Monday, September 5, 2016

Monday, 9/5/16 update

The "c" wave ED proposed last Thursday got blown up with Friday's rally.  The sideways track of recent weeks is beginning to look like an expanding triangle.  Triangle corrections are only found in 4th waves of 5 wave impulse sequences, and that brings an alternate count into view, which is that the ES completed Intermediate W3 of Major W5 at the mid-August high:

Since Inter W1 is longer than Inter W3 in this count, the Inter W5 that will commence at the conclusion of the Inter W4 triangle has to be shorter than Inter W3 to comply with EW rules.  So a relatively short burst for Inter W5 is likely.  Currently two possible targets for the Inter W5 top are at ES 2228 and 2261, but these targets are very tentative.  If this count is correct, that Inter W5 top will also be the top for Major W5 and in turn Primary W III, so there should be a significant bear market following that event.

Short term count for this alternate looks like this:

The count that has been preferred at this site is still possible and thus in play.  That count has the mid-August top labeled as Minor W1 of Inter W3 with Minor W2 in progress.  If that count is in fact the correct one then the significant top anticipated by the alternate outlined above gets pushed a lot farther down the road.
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