Saturday, 6/25/16 update

The bear alternate from the Jun 17 update didn't exactly play out as projected, but a bear posture towards the ES was obviously the right choice.  Currently this is labeled as a "c" wave in a flat type correction to the rally off Feb's low into the April highs.  A 50% retrace of that run is ES 1954.00, which is what is projected in the chart.  But that's no more than a guesstimate, the ES could sell off to even deeper lows or the correction could already be over.

There is a much more bearish alternate which would require a drop below the 1802 low of Feb, if it looks like that is going to happen I'll post that alternate.  Right now the steep sell off Friday appears to be a very reactionary response to politics, and as such the odds favor a low for the sell off sometime in the next week or so.

Thursday, 6/23/16 update

ES futures oscillator:

Friday, 6/17/16 update

The question to be answered at this juncture is whether Major W2 ended at the mid-May low or whether it's still in progress.  The alternates look like this:

Bear alternate

Bull alternate

Right now the bear alternate appears to have an edge when looking at timing oscillators (http://wttchartses.blogspot.com/2016/06/intraday-oscillators-61616.html). Also this is a seasonally bearish period.  But most importantly, the short term EW count shown on the hourly bearish alternate chart is a much better fit to the pattern.  This last week it appears that the ES traced out a running flat, with Thursday's low being the "B" wave of the flat:

Saturday, 6/11/16 update

Current short term ES count

This count is invalidated if the ES keeps falling from here down through ES 2022.00, which is the assumed bottom of Major W2.

Saturday, 6/4/16 update

This past week saw the ES put in about as perfect a flat type correction as will be seen in any market:

The 5 minute chart for Friday's "c" wave shows a clear impulse into the low of the day:

So the question yet to be answered is whether that low marked the entirety of Minute Wave C or just the 1st wave of Wave C.