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Saturday, April 2, 2016

Saturday, 4/2/16 update

At yesterdays high of ES 2067.00 the market has traveled 264.50 points in the ES since the early Feb low @ 1802.50.  That's  over 14% in a little over 7 weeks.  So it's fair to anticipate at least a correction (or more) in the near future.

There are a number of possible counts since the Feb 11 low.  My preferred count has the 5th wave of the impulse off the Feb 11 low in progress with a pair of nested waves 1 & 2 of that 5th wave in place.  This would indicate a 3rd of a 3rd wave happening currently.  Friday's strong move up off the day's low certainly fits the bill for that type of move: 

Another possibility at this juncture also has the 5th wave of the rally from early Feb in progress.  However, the count here has the top of the 3rd wave occurring about 10 days earlier than above with a very quick and shallow 4th wave, followed by an ending diagonal 5th wave which is very close to topping:

It's important to point out that from an EW standpoint the rally could extend and thus continue running for quite a bit longer than these counts suggest.  That doesn't seem reasonable, but then again the market is not necessarily a reasonable critter.
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