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Saturday, December 26, 2015

Saturday, 12/26/15 update

Well, we got the obligatory Santa Claus rally last week in the ES/SPX, and if the market stays true to the history of recent years that rally will extend into the end of the year next Thursday.  BUT we ended the week quite "overbought", so maybe not.

There are a number of bull & bear alternate EW counts at this juncture, some of which are fairly complex and counter-intuitive.  I could post those, but I think the comparison presented a couple of weeks ago is more significant for the intermediate term (and maybe long term as well).

To state the obvious, to resolve this either the broad market as represented by the NYA will rally strongly to match the position of the SPX (blue chips) or the SPX will decline significantly to harmonize with the NYA.  Given that the Russell 2000, the Wilshire 5000 and (importantly) the Dow Jones Transport (as pointed out by Pretzel) are also showing weakness relative to the SPX, then it's quite likely that the bear  is going to take control of the SPX in the not to distant future.

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