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Saturday, November 7, 2015

Saturday, 11/7/15 update

Best guess on the count for the rally from the Sep 29 low:

There are a number of ways to count this rally, so this is only the most likely possibility.  Note that the pattern of Wed-Thur-Fri this last week looks like a triple zig-zag but could also count as a leading diagonal - i.e. it could be the 1st wave of a deeper correction.  In that case, the Minute W1 top of last Wed is actually the Minor W5 top of the entire rally from Sep 29. 
If the market resumes the rally next week, then this count becomes invalidated at ES 2167 where Minor W5 would exceed the length of Minor W3 - since Minor W1 in this count is longer than Minor W3, then Minor W5 must be shorter than Minor W3 to adhere to EW rules.
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