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Saturday, October 17, 2015

Saturday, 10/17/15 update

Since the ES 1861.00 low on Sep 29 the has rallied 165 points into Fridays high at 2026.50 in an impulse type pattern.  Last spring and summer the ES found support in the 2032-2034 area four times, so that level could well provide resistance to the current rally and be an area where prices turn back down.

The hourly chart, if the count is correct, shows waves 1 thru 4 of the impulse complete with wave 5 in progress:

Interestingly, the "Pretzel Method" generates a target for the impulse of 2036.75, which lines up nicely with support/resistance level at 2032-2034.  In the Pretzel Method, the midpoint of the 3rd wave in an impulse is identified, then the distance from the start of the impulse to that 3rd wave midpoint is added to the 3rd wave midpoint value to derive a target for the entire structure.  In this case the 3rd wave midpoint is at 1948.88.  The distance from the 1861 low to 1948.88 is 87.88 points, adding that to 1948.88 yields a target of 2036.76.  (note: I've also found that if the 1.00 X multiple fails, prices will often get stopped at the 1.618 X multiple.)

From a longer term perspective the question of whether the Primary Wave IV correction was complete at the August lows remains open.  If it was not complete, then this coming correction could be the 1st wave of some significant selling as indicated in the daily chart above.  If it was complete, then the coming correction will be just that - a correction to a developing bull trend.  That daily chart looks like this:

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