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Sunday, May 10, 2015

Sunday, 5/10/15 update

I have to confess that the strength of Friday's rally took me completely by surprise.  My intraday indicators were signalling a short term bottom on Thursday morning:

However, I was convinced that the bull had been slaughtered and that we were about to see sausage being made, so I didn't take a long position on the indicated turn but rather planned on shorting this puppy with both fists whenever it looked like the rally was losing steam.  At this point that plan is, as they say, "inoperative".  The only consolation is that I didn't go short on Thursday (not that I wasn't tempted).

So the ES/SPX is still range bound and approaching the upper end of that range.  Given the strength shown on Friday it's a fair bet that new ATH's will be seen this coming week.  Whether we will see sustained trade north of the upper boundary of the recent range is an open question, and the answer to that question turns on which of the two alternate EW counts presented in the last month are correct.  Although Friday's rally forced a minor revision of those counts they remain essentially the same:

Alternate 1: Major W5 of Primary W III in progress, Intermediate Waves 1 & 2 of Major W5 done, currently Inter W3 in progress:

Alternate 2: Major W3 of Primary W III still unwinding with Intermediate W5 of Major W3 forming an ending diagonal, Minor Waves 1 through 4 of Intermediate W5 done and Minor W5 in progress:

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