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Sunday, August 10, 2014

Sunday, 8/10/14 update

The evidence that the selling in the ES/SPX that commenced in late July is done (for the time being) is pretty strong.  Wave counts from the July 24th highs into Friday's lows can be counted as complete.  In addition, market statistics as measured by Al's Indicator are in buy territory:

 Preferred Count

Alternate Count  

The big question at this juncture is weather the bounce off of Friday's lows is just that - a bounce - or are we going to see a run to new highs.  One key level is that which was pointed out in last weeks update - the assumed Intermediate W1 high of 1887.50 of early March.  If the selling resumes without new highs occurring and prices poke below that 1887.50 level then the odds of a major top being in place increase significantly.  On the other hand, if the current bounce moves up past the 80% retrace level of the recent sell off then new ATH's are highly likely.  That level is at ES 1969.25.  Meanwhile the form of the bounce will be a good tell.  If it is strongly impulsive then new ATH's are likely, if it is choppy and overlapping then continued selling is likely in the cards.  So far it's been pretty impulsive looking.

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