Sunday, 7/27/14 update

Minor W5 of Intermediate W3 can be counted as done as of last Thursday's high.  If so it formed an ending diagonal which would portend a fairly steep drop for Inter W4.

Inter W2 was a flat so a zig-zag for Inter W4 would provide alternation.  Possible targets for Inter W4 are at 1942.75 which is a .236 retrace of Inter W3 and an area of prior 4th wave lows of lower degree, and secondly at 1937.00 where there is a volume hole as seen below.

Longer term perspective:

Saturday, 7/19/14 update

Current short term EW count on ES:

This count has the Intermediate W3 top yet to occur.  An alternative possibility is that the Inter W3 top is already in place at the highs of Jul 3 and Inter W4 has been working it's way out since then.  Either way it's likely that there is more corrective activity yet to unwind before the Inter W5 rally kicks off.

Wednesday, 7/9/14 update

LEAVING FOR VACATION, BACK NEXT WEEK

Have we seen a significant top?  Too early to say for sure, and calling a top has often been a good way to look foolish in the last year.

Sunday, 7/6/14 update

The bull market continues to extend.  Still tracking two alternate counts, they are only slightly different and both have the ES/SPX in the 5th wave of the bull market off the 2011 lows.  One thing to note: Alternate #2 originally was considered an ending diagonal in progress, that possibility has been eliminated and instead it's a regular 5 wave sequence being formed.

PLEASE NOTE: My charting/trading platform (TD Ameritrade - TOS) has "lost" the daily ES data for the 1st two weeks of March, so the labeling in the charts approximates an interim top that occurred in that time frame 

Alternate #1

Alternate #2