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Sunday, February 9, 2014

Sunday, 2/9/14 update

 Alternate #1

 OR

 Alternate #2

Feels like deja vu all over again.  How many times in the last year or two has a correction abruptly ended when it felt like it was just getting going?

The rally off of last week's lows has been strong and impulsive looking.  So it has the feel of the end of the correction off the late-Dec/early-Jan highs.  If so then Alternate #1 is the correct analysis.  However, that count has a couple of very awkward spots from an EW point of view, especially in the pattern from last Monday's low at 1832.25 through the Wednesday low at 1832.00, which looks a lot more like the "a" and "b" legs of a developing flat than as Minute Waves 3, 4, and 5 of Minor W5 as labeled.  Which leads to Alternate #2, which counts the most recent activity as just that - a flat type corrective bounce in an ongoing downtrend.  If #2 is accurate, then the .618 retrace level at 1802.50 and the .786 retrace level at 1821.50 are possible targets for the rally terminus.
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