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Sunday, August 18, 2013

Sunday, 8/18/13 update

Looks very much like the Aug 5 top in the ES/SPX was in fact a significant high that marked the onset of an intermediate term change in trend to bearish.  Current count looks like this:

As is common however there is a possible alternate count:

In this alternate there are only 3 waves complete from the Jun 24 low (Minute Waves 1 - 3) and Minute W4 of the sequence is still in progress.  The Minute W4 action since the Minute W3 top has been an irregular flat which is close to the completion of it's 3rd and final leg, Micro Wave "c".  Following the low of that Micro Wave "c" the ES would rally one more time into a Minute W5 top.  This count, although possible, has a low probability for several reasons, the chief of those being that the Minute W4 in this case is severely out of proportion with Minute Waves 1 thru 3 of the move.  The alternate is eliminated with a print below the Minute W1 top at 1620.50.
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