Saturday, 10/27/12 update

Last week the ES/SPX followed through on the selling that started the prior week, but the action towards the end of the week was pretty difficult to analyze, much less trade.  The market seemed pretty trendless starting on Wednesday, and it would be a fair guess that it's going to stay that way for another week and a half.  Two factors might put a damper on any potential big move.  First is the "100 year" storm projected to hit the New York City area this coming week.  Second is the major election coming up on Nov 6 - one would expect that market participants will throttle back pending the results of that election.

The selling on Tuesday last eliminated one of the three possibilities presented in last weekends post when the ES dropped below 1416.50.  That leaves the two alternates that consider that the 1459.75 high for Oct 18 represents the top of a failed 5th wave.  The big question is whether that 5th wave marks THE end of the bull market that commenced at the Mar '09 lows or whether that bull has yet a bit more to run.  Possibly the election results in 11 days will be the deciding factor: death & doom if the current administration retains power or a short term burst of optimism if the incumbents are sent packing.

The two alternates currently look as follows:

TOP IS IN:

Daily Bars

 

 Intra Day

MORE TO GO:

Daily Bars

 Intra Day