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Sunday, September 30, 2012

Sunday, 9/30/12 update

As outlined in last Tuesday's update, there is a way to count recent activity that has a significant long term top in place at the high of ES 1468.00 on Sep 14:

In this view the ES has put in a Cycle degree "X" wave from the Mar '09 lows in the form of a double zig-zag.  The "C" wave of the last zig-zag is an ending diagonal which terminated at that Sep 14 high.  As mentioned Tuesday, this interpretation is plausible but also questionable given the liquidity pump the Fed is operating these days.

The prime alternate at the moment shows the same basic structure since the Mar '09 lows but has the 5th wave of the ending diagonal "C" wave still in progress:


One possible way to help determine the true nature of the Sep 14 high is to examine the selling since that top too see if it's impulsive or corrective in nature.  If impulsive then the argument that Sep 14 marked a significant top is buttressed.  But that analysis doesn't throw much light on the situation as the selling doesn't appear complete at this point and it can be viewed either way - it can be labeled as an impulse in progress that has completed waves 1 thru 4 with wave 5 in progress or as a triple zig-zag with the "c" wave of the 3rd zig-zag in progress.

Impulse count

Corrective count

The next rally sequence will help tell the tale - if the ES rallies up past the 1468.00 high of Sep 14 then it's probably headed for the 1490 area and possibly much higher.

Al's Indicator
The reading on Al's Indicator dropped below 1.00 on Friday to a value of .88.  Readings below 1.00 have had a history of being fairly reliable buy signals.

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