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Saturday, November 26, 2011

Saturday, 11/26/11 update

The selling in the SPX/ES since mid November has certainly been relentless. Wave count on this extended impulse does show that the sequence is possibly nearing a conclusion, although at least one more wave 4 - 5 sequence is indicated. Prices are currently working in the area of a .618 retrace of the October rally at 1152.50. It is quite possible to see prices stay in this area for a few days while putting in the final waves. If prices do push lower in the immediate future then the next level of support is at the .786 retrace of the October rally at 1115.25.

Updated charts on the alternate longer term ES counts:

Alternate 1

Alternate 2

Alternate 3

Given the relentless nature of the recent selling, Alternates 1 & 2 are beginning to fade in probability. This will be especially so if prices push down to that .786 retrace of the October rally at 1115.25. Both those alternates will be completely invalidated if the ES drops below the Oct 4 low of 1068.00.

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