Monday, 7/25/11 update

Preliminary down signals on the SPX and ES this morning when prices dropped below the uptrend line that defined the rally up from last Monday's lows.  This was accompanied by a drop below 80.0 on the Dynamic Oscillator in both indexes.  The Vindicator followed along at 2 PM (CST) when the Sell line crossed above the Buy line.  The long ES held since last Tuesday was sold at that point for a net gain of 21.50 points.

SPX

ES

This is a market juncture with a high level of difficulty and thus risk.  There are at least a half dozen alternate possible Elliott counts, the two I present in the chart section of the blog are the more likely possibilities IMO, but even so their probabilities aren't the highest.  Adding to the risk is the news driven nature of the current situation.  The best Elliott analysis and technical analysis won't necessarily anticipate a sharp major jump in one direction or another that could occur as a result of a news item about the debt negotiations in Washington.
 
For current Elliott wave counts click the "HERE" button under the "Current Charts" banner at the top of this page.

Tuesday, 7/19/11 Update

Nice rally today in the SPX/ES.  Went long the ES this morning based on Buy signal generated by the Trendline Oscillator System.  The Dynamic Oscillator closed above 20 overnight and prices closed above the downtrend line a couple of hours later generating a preliminary "up" signal. Both kept climbing into the regular market open this AM where a long position was initiated.  I've been using Wilder's DMI as a proxy for the Vindicator in the Futures markets, it's serviceable but not the same - the DMI is based strictly on price statistics whereas the Vindicator uses advance/decline and volume statistics for it's inputs.  Anyway, the DI+ crossed above the DI-  on the ES at noon (CST) today confirming the uptrend.

ES - hourly

The story on the SPX is just a tad different.   Coming into today the Vindicator had been showing waning selling pressure (red line) and strengthening buying pressure (green line) over the last two trading days, particularly yesterday.  So a change of trend was in the wind.  This morning prices closed above the downtrend line and the Dynamic Oscillator closed above 20 at the end of the 1st 30 minutes of trading.  However the Vindicator Buy line (green) did not successfully cross above the Sell line (red) - rather it topped it just slightly towards the end of trading and then fell away into the close.  So caution is warranted here - this rally could fizzle.

SPX - 30 minute candles

Unfortunately I'm traveling the next few days on business and will have difficulty updating this site (I have a flight that lands in San Jose, CA at 8 PM tomorrow).  I'll do my best.

For current Elliott wave counts click the "HERE" button under the "Current Charts" banner at the top of this page.

Tuesday, 6/21/11 Update

The bear trend in the ES/SPX that started on May 2 has certainly been a choppy affair and very difficult to analyze, much less trade.  That bear trend was quite possibly done at last Thursday's lows, and today's rally is potential confirmation of that.  At this juncture there are several possible interpretations from an Elliott standpoint, none of which are very graceful.  Some alternates are presented in the chart section of this blog, to view them click HERE.

Saturday, 5/21/11 update

Gold appears to have completed a triangle type Minute Wave 4 on Friday.

Gold futures - hourly bars

If true, this should lead to a nice rally that has the potential to reach into the upper 1600's area.

Gold futures - daily bars

Likewise Silver has the look of a triangle over the same time period, which would also be a 4th wave but of
Major Wave degree, which means any top generated will be a much longer term top than that of Gold.
(click HERE for silver charts)

Saturday, 5/14/11 update

The ES has been in a wedge type formation for two weeks now.

The ES/SPX appears to be at a major inflection point.  Current Elliott Wave and other ES charts can be found HERE.  The direction of the eventual breakout from this current wedge is likely to be in the direction of the general trend for some weeks to come.  Given the breakdown in the commodity and currency markets and the strength in the US$ (not unrelated), the odds are that the breakout and subsequent trend are going to be to the downside.

CLICK HERE FOR CURRENT CHARTS

Wednesday 4/20/11 wrap up

Sigh.
Go long or be wrong.  Doesn't seem reasonable, does it?  But yet, there's no denying it at this point.

ES - hourly

ES - daily

Monday 4/18/11 wrap up

ES
It looked very much like the ES had turned up late last week, but SURPRISE!!  Anyway, the bearish alternate discussed recently now appears to be the case (see "2nd alternate" on weekend post and Tues, 4/12 & Thur, 4/14 updates).  Not only is that bearish alternate not out the window, it's sitting in the middle of the living room couch hogging all the popcorn.

That count assumes that the Major Wave 2 (blue) correction that started in mid Feb is still in progress.  Major Wave 1 lasted seven months and traveled 340 points, if Major W2 were done at the mid March low it would be only about a month in duration and around 100 points in length.  So it's not unreasonable for it to have more time and distance yet to travel.  Also, as was pointed out last week, the underlying technicals of the mid March to early April rally were on the weak side, more typical of a B wave than a 1st wave kickoff to a significant bull run.
If Major W2 is in fact still in progress, then the ES put in the A wave from the mid-Feb top into the mid-March low, the B wave ran from mid-March into early April, and the C wave is currently in progress.

ES daily chart - bear alternate

ES hourly chart - bear alternate 

AUD/US$
The AUD/US$ has quite possibly seen the top of a bull run that started in late May of last year.
 Five waves up are apparent from a low established in mid-March to the high print of last Friday.

 AUD/US$ - 2 hour bars

In turn, that five wave structure appears to be Minor W5 of the bull sequence dating back to last May.   If correct, that concludes an Intermediate Wave 1 and thus Intermediate Wave 2 has commenced with today's sell off.