Current preferred count on the ES is that we are in an Intermediate W4 of 5 waves up of a move that started at the early JUL lows.
Since Int W2 (purple) in August was a zig zag, this Int W4 should be either a triangle or flat. My inclination is that a triangle is the most likely for seasonal reasons - a lot of significant players are off for the holidays, so really big moves are unlikely (but not impossible). In that context, the choppy sell off of Nov 9 through Nov 16 is likely Wave A, and this morning's highs would mark the end of Wave B, with Wave C in progress:
The flat possibility would look something like this:
There is another intermediate term alternate. That alternate is that the Primary degree correction that started in April is itself taking the form of a flat, with the A and B legs done and Primary Wave C in it's early stages. This does not fit well seasonally. Also that would mean that the sell off of Nov 9 through Nov 16 is a Wave 1, but that move was not impulsive and thus did not look like the kick off to a deep sell off that would be expected for a Primary Wave C. So this possibility is less likely IMO.
Intermediate Term Alternate
