Thursday, March 4, 2010
Trades
Stopped out of long ES overnight @ 1114.00
Short 1/2 position this AM @ ES 1119.00, SL @ 1133.25
Short 1/2 position this AM @ ES 1119.00, SL @ 1133.25
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
SSDD
Today almost a carbon copy of yesterday, run up in AM for new high for this move, back down in PM to hug trendline at end of day, momentum indicator on edge of sell signal. Moved stop to 1114.00 last night, still holding long. Looks like we're forming a short term top.
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
Up we go
Market resolved the wedge by a break to the upside today, although there was no real follow through after the initial burst this AM. Broke the trendline late in the day (although back above it as I write this), which is the first step in a sell signal. The second step, which is a sell from the momentum indicator, hasn't occurred, so still holding long. Moved stop loss up to ES 1110.00 which locks in a little bit of the gain.
Monday, March 1, 2010
Coin toss time
The ES down-up pattern since last Tuesday can be interpreted one of two ways: We are either forming an A-B-C flat correction and are currently at the top of B, or the correction ended last Thursday and we've put in a series of 1-2's. If we're forming a flat we should turn down sharply very soon with a target at or below last Thursday's low of 1084.50. If we've put in 1-2's then we should see a 3rd wave in the very near future, which also should be sharp and strong to the upside. The pattern since last Thursday's low at the moment is a wedge, and a break and hourly close outside of the wedge lines in either direction should point the way. From a trading standpoint I will hold long unless there's a close below the lower trendline accompanied by a sell on the momentum indicator. At this point the momentum indicator is solidly in hold long territory, but that can change overnight. Moved stop today to 1 tick above long entry, so will at the least breakeven on the trade.
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